Welcome to Bayes Market, the next-generation prediction market designed for all. If you are seeking a platform where every opinion of yours can be turned into tradable assets in a continuous liquid market, or if you are tired of mainstream prediction market events, or if you are keen to create your events and invite your friends to participate in a gamified manner, you’ve found your match.
Bayes Market aims to build the next-generation Asia-based global prediction market that truly supports a decentralized information aggregation system for everyone, meaning: UGC events, community-vibe discussion, variety of trading choices that satisfy all appetite.
Bayes Market launched our beta version on June 7th, 2025, at the Manifest 2025 conference in California. We received valuable feedback from our fellow Bayesian fans.
This article serves to answer the following questions：
Why we decide to build a prediction market
Why we are called Bayes
How is Bayes Market different from the existing prediction market?
When we officially launch our product and what’s our roadmap
Making Sense of This Chaotic World
The age we live in is full of noise and disappointments. This accelerating change has brought about a level of uncertainty and polarization that humanity has rarely experienced before. From the rise of artificial intelligence and climate change challenges to economic volatility and political divisions, the future feels increasingly unpredictable. The interconnectedness of global systems means that events in one region can ripple across continents, creating complex scenarios that defy traditional forecasting methods.
In contrast to the promise of removing information asymmetry, current algorithms often amplify existing biases by prioritizing content that aligns with users’ previous behaviors and preferences, creating echo chambers that reinforce narrow viewpoints. Information is still centralized and even more than before.
We thought that we would live in the best of times when all information or knowledge seems available and accessible, yet we feel like living in the worst of times when we never felt so lost and desire to be found.
As a result, we risk losing touch with a more nuanced and complex reality, trapped in feedback loops that distort the truth. We end up waking up one day surprised seeing a whole different reality. The widening inequality and wealth gap, the identity politics that overrides truth, the small voices of the forgotten public are nowhere to be heard.
Moreover, this increasing volatility has brought risk into the daily lives of ordinary people, not just those in positions of power or wealth. Economic instability, climate change, and geopolitical tensions now affect job security, health, and safety for millions around the globe, highlighting how interconnected and fragile modern life has become, making resilience and adaptability essential for everyone, regardless of status.
Bayes team believes that the prediction market can be the right tool and shield, where individuals are free to create, access, vote for their beliefs, and collectively the full picture of an event is captured and all sides are revealed.
The Bayesian Way
We believe that in times of these, where pervasive uncertainty fuels anxiety and complicates decision-making affecting every individual, it’s reasonable to go back to the basic rules of how we can better understand the world and live a more resilient life.
The Bayesian school believes that probability represents a degree of belief based on an individual’s information and recognition capability, reflecting the relationship between humans and the world. They believe that from a human perspective, if we keep gathering more information and updating our beliefs, we are able to get the most possible outcome that is closest to truth. A Bayesian practitioner would start with prior belief, incorporate new data and evidence to update probability of a hypothesis.
The Bayes team, as the name suggests, believes that the Bayesian way is inherently tied to human cognition, resembles better how humans actually acquire knowledge and learn. We also hold that prediction market design structure mostly effectively resembles the Bayesian process of collective cognition and intelligence. There is value in the biases and beliefs of individuals, and when we aggregate all of them, we collect a fairly interesting conclusion of probability distribution that mirrors reality.
The Bayesian process of constantly updating information gathered by various parties, resulting in prices and probabilities, provides us steps closer to truth each time.
Therefore, the logo of Bayes Market is the combination of prior belief probability normal distribution, and a posteria belief probability normal distribution, in between with trades happening and probability updating in Bayes Market.
Bayes Market: The Next-Gen Prediction Market Designed for All
Though the prediction market is such a useful tool, and gradually we see both regulators and individuals embracing the conceptual idea of it, we observe that prediction market remains the fashion for crypto users and individual traders. Current platforms remain inaccessible to mainstream users. They’re siloed in crypto-native circles, anchored to North American topics, and deter participation with technical barriers.
Traditional prediction markets focus mainly on North-American-centric political topics. As users based outside the US, the topics are not relevant to me. Besides, a user may want to create an event to gather information about a niche drama, or anything he/she might be interested in in his/her community. Not only is market creation problematic, liquidity remains the key concern.
Bayes Market is reimagining the prediction market experience from the ground up: user-first, community-centric, and intuitive by design — without compromising the intellectual rigor and economic incentives that make markets powerful.
Smooth Onboarding for all: To address the steep learning curve of blockchain-based platforms, also suiting the risk appetite of different users. Bayes Market enables seamless login with email, social media accounts and users can get ready to experience trading immediately. Bayes Market introduces play money Bayes Point and real-money (USDC), acting as separate pools, while users can choose to play at either or both markets. This allows both serious traders and curious users to engage at their own pace — bringing prediction markets to classrooms, group chats, and fan communities without regulatory frictions.
User-Generated Events: Most prediction platforms restrict market creation to a small group of curators. Bayes flips that model. Anyone can create markets at Bayes — from celebrity gossip to local elections or niche sports leagues. This opens the door to hyper-relevant, culturally resonant content — especially important in Asia’s diverse media and language ecosystems. Bayes will also assist individuals to grow to be mature events creators, opinion leaders and provide guidelines and tools for managing the life-cycle of events.
Long-tail Market Liquidity: Bayes introduces an advanced AMM liquidity mechanism that bootstrap initial liquidity even for niche questions. Also, we will adopt a recommendation system that makes sure every event of your interest will find you, ensuring that liquidity is maximized.
Asian social betting dynamic: Bayes is an Asia-based prediction market that will be designed to fit the cultural dynamic. We observed soft social betting on Mahjong tables, questions on who gets married first as well as celebrity gossip, and aimed at bringing this unique social betting experience to our Asian audiences.
Bayes Market isn’t just porting a Western concept to an Eastern audience — it’s building a global knowledge exchange system inspired by Asian user behavior, grassroots curiosity, and social trust.
We believe prediction markets can be serious and fun. They can host global forecasts and your K-drama finale theories. And they can finally reach the scale and inclusivity their potential deserves.
The Bayes Market Roadmap
On June 7th, Bayes Market launched our beta version of product, which is just the very first step towards our goal. Our team is working hard behind the scenes to bring out all our ideas for practical product functions.
The current Bayes Market adopts and trades on Bayes Points only, and can only earn Points through first-time registration. Based on feedback from our initial users, we will update Bayes Market in the following phases:
July 2025: Official launch of Bayes Market enabling both Bayes Points and Real-money USDC trading. Users can register and invite friends to earn Bayes Points. Events for this version will be mainly created by the Bayes team, with suggestions from our community.
2025 Q3-Q4: UGC and Community Growth: Major update on enabling events creation for both Points System and Real-money System. Qualified users are able to create their own market and invite friends to join the social activity. Creator incentives, a more detailed Bayes Points program and the multi-language versions will be launched.
2026 Q1-Q2: The market-as-content social prediction: embedding recommendation system and reputation profile so that opinions in the community can be traced and evaluated. Users can real-time interact with news to make predictions, create content and discuss as a community.
Join our community and stay tuned
What we’ve discussed so far is only a small glimpse of the whole picture. Our team is working hard behind the scenes and we have many more ideas in the works.
Our goal is simple: make prediction markets mass adoption, fun, social, emotionally and financially relevant. We aim to unlock an entirely different dynamic of how every individual voices out their opinions, in any information market that they deem relevant.
Bayes is an early stage start-up, and we’re building this together with our community. Whether you’re a curious learner, a K-drama enthusiast, a trader, or just someone with a good hunch about what’s coming next, there’s a place for you at Bayes Market.
We believe that insights can come from anywhere, and that everyone should have a voice in shaping the future.
Join us for the latest update and be part of a global conversation grounded in curiosity, culture, and collective intelligence.
